Source EP Vantage
Company Medarex
Related: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Pfizer
Date April 02, 2008
The termination of a phase III trial of tremelimumab in melanoma, after interim data suggested the drug was no better than standard chemotherapy, could mean Pfizer has lost one its most promising pipeline products.
While the company is not abandoning the antibody, which is in trials for a range of solid tumours, the prognosis is not good, and is the last thing Pfizer needs as it attempts to drive through new products ahead of the looming loss of Lipitor. For Medarex, the news is an even bigger blow, because it makes potential future royalty payments look more uncertain, and adds to concerns around a similar antibody the biotechnology firm is developing with Bristol-Myers Squibb.
Tremelimumab, or CP-675,206, is an anti-CTLA4 antibody which targets a molecule found on the surface of T-cells, and has been shown to diminish the immune response to tumours. By using a human antibody to block the activity of CTLA-4, immune systems may attack tumours more strongly.
There are two anti-CTLA4 MAb’s under development, tremelimumab and ipilimumab, both in final stage trials for melanoma. The Pfizer drug was developed using technology similar to Medarex’s, hence the royalties due on future sales. The latter, also known as MDX-010, was developed by the biotechnology group, and is being progressed under the alliance with Bristol-Myers Squibb.
The consensus net present value of MDX-010 to Medarex is $1.23bn, according to EvaluatePharma’s NPV Analyzer, which represents just over a third of the total value of the group’s pipeline. CP-675,206 is valued at $547m, accounting for just under a fifth, meaning half of the company’s pipeline value is tied up in the success of anti-CTLA4 MAbs.
Medarex shares were trading 15% lower, at $7.88, in early trade.
Second most important
Pfizer shares also opened weaker, down 1%. The consensus NPV of the product is $2.29bn, representing 2% of the company’s share price. That makes it the second most important pipeline project, after axitinib.
Analysts had penciled in sales of $499m by 2012, and were anticipating launch this year. The product is phase II trials in non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal and breast cancers, among others.
Melanoma would be a big opportunity for both CP-675,206 and MDX-010, because the cancer represents a significant unmet medical need. The main drugs used to fight the disease are the interferon alphas, sales of which are in decline as newer, more effective products have been developed for other tumour types, with melanoma remaining hard to treat.
If the antibodies fail to make the grade, the indication will lose two its most promising looking new candidates.
Diminishing hopes
Hopes that the anti-CTLA4 MAbs would prove to be a significant new treatment options were lowered when Bristol-Myers and Medarex released mixed results from three registration phase III trials of ipilimumab in December. One study did not meet the primary endpoint, although the companies have stressed that response rates across the trials were positive.
MDX-010 is due to be filed with the FDA in the first half of the year, and Medarex has expressed confidence that the regulator will approve the drug on the data. Sales forecasts commence in 2008, given the fast track status the drug has been granted, but confidence in straight-off approval has diminished, with many analysts believing further trials will be required.
A sign that Bristol-Myers is also less than confident came in a December slide show given by the company, which showed sales of MDX-010 starting in 2010.
Consensus for 2012 sales sits at $389m recorded by Bristol-Myers. A key event for defining the potential of the drug will come when full data from the three phase III trials is presented at this year’s ASCO conference at the end of May.
With today’s set back, that presentation takes on even greater importance for the biotechnology group. Its shares fell 21% when the news on MDX-010 was announced in December, and aside from a recent small rally, have been falling since.
With the stock now trading at three-year lows, significant progress with the remainder of its pipeline is needed to restore confidence.
This content is written, edited and published by EP Vantage and is distributed by EvaluatePharma Ltd. All queries regarding the content should be directed to: news@epvantage.com
EP Vantage is a unique, forward-looking, news analysis service tailored to the needs of pharma and finance professionals. EP Vantage focuses on the events that will define the future of companies, products and therapy areas, with detailed financial analysis of events in real-time, including regulatory decisions, product approvals, licensing deals, patent decisions, M&A.
Drawing on EvaluatePharma, an industry-leading database of actual and forecast product sales and financials, EP Vantage gives readers the insight to make value-enhancing decisions.
Source: EvaluatePharma®
Source:
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Based on this information plus 1.5 bn for the othe 39 drugs in the pipeline plus 1.23 for mdx-010 and 2.29 for Tremelimumab, or CP-675,206 equals 5.02 bn
Lets do the math 2.4 bn/16per share = 5.02 bn/X X= 33.5 dollars per share
BMY got a half off deal.
Show us the $$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!!!!!!
Medarex List of products in the pipline!!!! 14-Aug-09 10:13 pm
Product Count
Medarex
Marketed 3
R&D 62
Suspended in R&D 1
Abandoned in R&D 42
Disposed in R&D 1
Total (Medarex) 109
DEPTH COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE AVAILABLE ON
Product Generic Name
Medarex
aB7H4
-
ADC Research Program
-
AFP-VAC
-
ALT-212
-
AMG 714
-
Amgen Antibody-1
-
Amgen Antibody-2
-
Amgen Antibody-3
-
Amgen Antibody-4
-
Amgen Antibody-5
-
Anti-bacterial MAb
-
Anti-CD70 MAb-MGBA conjugate
-
Anti-Cripto-1 MAb
-
Anti-CTLA-4 project
-
Anti-SDF-1 MAb
-
aPtk7
-
ARIUS/Medarex Cancer Research Project
-
AutoImmune MAb Collaboration
-
Avalon Cancer Antibody Collaboration
-
BMS-66513
-
Cancer antibody collaboration
-
Cancer MAb Project
-
Cancer Research Project
-
CDX-110
-
CDX-1307
-
CDX-1401
-
CDX-2101 (inc. Ribi-529 adjuvant)
hepatitis B vaccine
CDX-2301
anthrax vaccine
CDX-2401
-
CDX-2410
-
CDX-S03
-
CNTO 95
intetumumab
COL-VAC
-
Compugen antibody collaboration
-
CP-675,206
tremelimumab
DTS-201
-
Duocarmycin B2
-
Eos/Medarex/Biosite Cancer MAb
-
Euroscreen MAb collaboration
-
FG-3019
-
Fully-Human RSV MAbs
-
Graft versus Host Disease Project
-
GVHD-TOX
-
Haematological cancer MAb collaboration
-
HGS-TR2J
-
HuMax-CD4
zanolimumab
HuMax-Inflam (MDX-018)
-
IL-13 Antibody
-
Ilaris
canakinumab
IMC-18F1
-
IMC-3G3
-
Immunology MAb collaboration
-
Infectious Disease Research Project
-
Ipilimumab
ipilimumab
KW-2189
pibrozelesin
LOR-A04
-
Lung Cancer MAb
-
MAb Research Project
-
MAGE3
-
MDX 1097
-
MDX-060
iratumumab
MDX-066
-
MDX-067
-
MDX-070
-
MDX-11
-
MDX-1100
-
MDX-1105
-
MDX-1110
-
MDX-1185
-
MDX-1203
-
MDX-1204
-
MDX-1338
-
MDX-1342
-
MDX-1388
-
MDX-1401
-
MDX-1411
-
MDX-1414
-
MDX-214
-
MDX-22
-
MDX-220
-
MDX-240
-
MDX-33
-
MDX-44
-
MDX-447
-
MDX-RA
-
Medarex/Pfizer UltiMAb Antibody
-
Medarex/Raven MAb
-
MEDI-545
sifalimumab
MEDI-546
-
MelanA
-
MEL-VAC
-
NI-0401
-
Novartis Antibody 2
-
NY-ESO-1
-
OGeS cancer antibody collaboration
-
ONO-4538 / MDX-1106
-
Organon/Medarex MAb
-
Osidem
-
Ovarian Cancer MAb
-
PSA-VAC
-
Resiquimod (inc. CDX-1307 adjuvant)
-
SARS MAb
-
Second-generation MDX-070 toxin conjugate
-
Simponi
golimumab
Stelara
ustekinumab
Transcobalamin MAb
-
Valortim
-
VAP-1 Antibody Program
-
Vitamin B12 Receptor Blocking MAb
Take Care,
Jimmy B
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